Analysis: Why Catalonia’s 11th regional elections are unlike any other

Catalonia, the second-most-populated region in Spain, and one of the most prosperous in economic terms, has celebrated 10 regional elections since democracy returned to Spain in 1978. In theory, today’s polls were set to be number 11. But these are not ordinary elections. Polling stations open today after three years during which the Generalitat – the Catalan regional government – has pushed forward a process of confrontation and unilateral secession from the rest of Spain. That process is due to reach its conclusion today, with the results of these polls being posited by Catalan parties as if they were a de facto referendum on independence.

The two groups running in the elections who are defending independence in Catalonia – Junts pel Sí (Together for Yes) and CUP ( Popular Unity Candidacy) – have announced that they will interpret the results in the following manner: if between the two of them they manage to win half of the seats in the regional parliament plus one (but don’t have the absolute majority of votes) they will begin a unilateral secession plan that will last 18 months, until they definitively break away from the Spanish state in April 2017. They would do this despite there being no legal framework that authorizes them to convert autonomous elections into a referendum on independence. And they would do so in contravention of the Constitution, which gives national sovereignty to the Spanish people as a whole and enshrines the “indivisible unity” of Spain.

The government of Mariano Rajoy argued that the referendum could not be held given that the Spanish Constitution does not allow for such an eventuality

Junts pel Sí and CUP claim that they have got to this point because the national parliament, led by the government of Mariano Rajoy (Popular Party) and the Spanish courts prohibited them from holding a referendum on their future last year. And they underline that the plan for independence has solid backing among the public. Over recent years, for example, hundreds of thousands of people from a total population of seven million have gone out on to the streets on Catalonia Day – known as the Diada – to express their support for a secessionist process.

The government of Mariano Rajoy argues that the referendum could not be held given that the Spanish Constitution does not allow for such an eventuality, and because “all Spaniards should decide what Spain is.” He has also stated that an independent Catalonia “will not take place.” But he has not gone so far as to explain what he will do if the independent groups achieve a victory at the polls today.

The Junts pel Sí group, which is likely to be the most-voted according to opinion polls, is made up of two parties that had, until now, opposed one another: Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC), led by current regional premier Artur Mas (conservative, nationalist and demochristian); and the Republican Left (ERC), led by Oriol Junqueras (pro-independence and left wing). Two parties that are fundamentally different from an ideological point of view, but that have come together during this campaign to defend their pro-independence stance – practically the only issue upon which they have campaigned.

During the election campaign, a number of international organisms and leaders – including US President Barack Obama, Colombian leader Juan Manuel Santos and UK Prime Minister David Cameron – have publicly come out in favor of Spain staying united. The European Union has warned Catalonia that it will be left out of the organization should it separate from Spain. The main Spanish banks, as well as a number of key business figures, have announced that they will consider leaving Catalonia should it become independent. The pro-secession leaders have responded to all of this by saying that they trust in the strength of the facts should they win an election victory, and that all of these “prophecies” will not come true because they form part of a campaign of “fear.”

During the election campaign, a number of international organisms and leaders have publicly come out in favor of Spain staying united

Catalonia and the rest of the autonomous regions in Spain have some of the highest levels of self-governance (powers in health, education, social services, police, tax-collection) in all of Europe. But they do not have sovereignty, and form part of a common-financing system (with the exception of the Basque Country and Navarre) that a number of regions – in particular the wealthiest, such as Catalonia – believe to be unfair.

The independence drive by Catalonia has led some parties – including the main opposition Socialists (PSOE) – to propose that the Spanish Constitution be reformed in the upcoming legislature in order to incorporate the “singularities” of these and other regions, in an attempt to placate the nationalist challenges. But this potential reform to the pact between Spaniards is mistrusted by the governing Popular Party, who argue that “before we begin that journey, we have to be clear where we want to go.”

English version by Simon Hunter.