Catalonia goes to the polls at elections that could decide region’s future

Catalonia will today hold regional elections at which, for the first time ever, the main and practically only issue presented by the running parties during the campaign is whether the northeastern Spanish region should push ahead with an independence process.

A scenario that has been called for by nationalist parties for decades now has finally found its place within polls that have been posited as a de facto plebiscite for the region. That said, it is unclear ahead of today’s vote as to whether or not the independence parties will achieve a majority of seats or votes.

It is unclear whether or not the independence parties will achieve a majority of seats or votes

The center-right central government, led by the conservative Popular Party, is fiercely opposed to any moves toward independence by Catalonia, and has repeatedly refused its requests to hold any kind of referendum on its future. As for today’s elections, Madrid has stated that it will not consider any step toward secession as legitimate, and has rejected outright that today’s vote represent any kind of plebiscite.

The results of today’s regional elections will lead to three possible scenarios, depending on whether or not the independence drive represented by the Junts pel Sí (Together for Yes) and CUP (Popular Unity Candidacy) parties achieve a majority of seats in the parliament or votes. Opinion polls held during the campaign suggest that a more likely outcome is that these parties will need the support of other groups – those with a different view on independence and the future of Catalonia – in order to govern.

Junts pel Sí is a platform created ahead of these regional elections, and consists of Democratic Convergence of Catalonia (CDC), Republican Left (ERC) and other pro-independence platforms that have been key players in regional politics over the last four years. They say that they will feel they have been given a mandate to begin an independence process should they win the 68 of the 135 seats in the Catalan parliament needed for a majority. Within that total they are including votes for CUP, a radical left-wing party that doesn’t just want independence, but is also suggesting exit from the European Union. CUP also questions whether current regional premier Artur Mas (CDC) should continue in the role if they win the elections today.

A victory in seats alone will cause at least two problems for Junts pel Sí. In the first instance, CUP has stated that it will only see the process as legitimate if they win a majority of seats and votes. The electoral law in the region gives the lesser-populated areas an advantage when it comes to seats in parliament, meaning that the pro-independence parties may come out with a majority in parliament, but not necessarily in votes. In that instance, Junts pel Sí would have to decide whether to continue with its plan, which would begin with a symbolic declaration in the regional parliament and would end with “constituent” elections within 18 months.

Junts pel Sí may have to find an alternative candidate from current premier Artur Mas to lead the government

The second problem that Junts pel Sí would face is that it may have to find an alternative candidate from current regional premier Artur Mas to lead the government. CUP has already expressed its preference for Oriol Junqueras – the leader of the ERC – or Raül Romeva, who has led the electoral list ahead of today’s vote in order to ease agreements between parties and platforms. Mas would, in that case, take a secondary role, and would most like withdraw from political life.

Everything will be very different in the case of a clear pro-independence majority, which would see CUP accept the road map laid out by Junts pel Sí. In that case, institutional instability would be guaranteed for 18 months at the least. After a potential institutional declaration by the Catalan parliament, announcing the start of an independence process, the pro-secession parties plan to begin constructing the so-called “state structures,” starting with an independent tax-collecting office – something that has already been suspended by the Constitutional Court. The central government believes that if this process is put into place, it could combat it thanks to a controversial reform of the Constitutional Court that it is currently rushing through parliament in Madrid. Once again, the premiership of Mas would be in danger.

English version by Simon Hunter.