United Left holds the key in Andalusia

Voters in Andalusia woke up Monday with an election hangover. After weeks of polling, surveys and fierce campaigning, residents in Spain’s most populous region still don’t know who will be their leader for the next four years.

There was only one important question in most Andalusians’ minds: what will the United Left (IU) do?

With the Popular Party (PP) failing to obtain an absolute majority in the regional parliament, and the losses incurred by the incumbent Socialists — down by nine deputies — the IU now holds the key to form a new government in Andalusia.

The leftist grouping doubled its seats from six to 12 in Sunday’s regional race and both major parties have begun to court IU members to side with them and form a new government. The Socialists and the PP need 55 seats in the 109-member parliament for an absolute majority.

Javier Arenas, the PP leader who won the elections by popular vote, only obtained 50 seats while the incumbent Socialist government of José Antonio Griñán won 47. Diego Valderas, the IU coordinator in Andalusia, said his coalition will take its time in deciding who to support.

Nothing is written in stone, except that the IU and PP are like water and oil”

“Nothing is written in stone, except that the IU and PP are like water and oil,” Valderas said Monday. “And the problem with the other side [referring to the Socialists] is that they are one part water, and another part oil.”

Negotiations between the IU, the PP and the Socialists are expected to be lengthy. But Valderas, whose IU obtained its best-ever result in Andalusia, says he wants to talk to party members before deciding.

Although it may seem unrealistic, the IU has done things in the past to help the PP achieve its goals. Last July, amid controversy following the May 22 regional races, renegade IU members in Extremadura abstained from voting for a premier — a move that allowed the PP’s José Antonio Monago to win the parliamentary vote and wrest power from the Socialists, who had governed the western region for 28 years.

IU national rules forbid its members from doing anything to help the conservative PP from governing anywhere. Last year, Cayo Lara, the IU’s national coordinator, threatened to punish the renegade Extremadura members, who said they were only following the desires of their constituents, but the controversy fizzled out before any disciplinary action was taken.

Valderas said that the IU in Andalusia will “make its decisions calmly and prudently,” calling both parties “the real losers” in this weekend’s election.

“They can sell the situation any way they want, but anyone who loses nine deputies has been defeated because of their policies — even though they did all they could to keep from losing,” he said in reference to the Socialists. “And the other loser was already claiming the Andalusia government house as his own even before the people spoke.”

While the Socialists were taken aback by the better-than-expected results, the PP’s national committee was devastated. After weeks of polls predicting that the PP would obtain a resounding victory in the region, Sunday’s tepid results came as a shock.

Nevertheless, María Dolores de Cospedal, the PP secretary general, tried to paint it as a victory. Even though she and Arenas are known to be fierce rivals who are leading separate factions for future control of the party, De Cospedal spoke highly of her veteran PP colleague Sunday night. “Javier did a marvelous job, and from here on we will discuss anything he wants to discuss.”

In reality, it was Arenas’ fourth and probably final attempt to win Andalusia’s regional race — this time he came close, but still not close enough.

De Cospedal declined to speculate on the reasons for Arenas’ shortfall while shrugging off notions that Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy’s austerity measures may have swayed the Andalusian vote. “The changes that are coming to Spain are unstoppable. There is a government in charge that is carrying out the reforms that Spain needs and has the support of the majority of citizens. One thing is the general elections; quite another is the regional race,” she said.

Meanwhile, Griñán, who is now officially head of a transitional government in the region, was euphoric Sunday night despite his uncertain future. “There was a majority of people who didn’t vote for the right and who want to stay on the road of social values and equal opportunities [to confront the crisis],” he said.

“We have got to this stage. We have won the elections. We are a party of dialogue that will guarantee the stability and governance in Andalusia,” Griñán told his supporters after the final votes were counted.