Rajoy's anti-campaign rolls on

If one observes Mariano Rajoy closely, it seems that he intends to win the general election without anybody noticing; to drift past unseen until the night of November 20, when everything will already have been done. It is in this manner that Rajoy has always ascended in politics, without making too much noise. And it appears that he wishes to continue in this vein. The Popular Party (PP) leader has promised practically nothing - at most, to "make people happy" and to name a "serious government" - and he has not held forth on a single issue.

He knows that enthusiasm is not his forte and he does not seek it. This is Rajoy in his purest state: he doesn't wish to give battle even when he has it already won. The opposition leader thinks he knows Spaniards very well and he is convinced that this is what they want at the moment: discretion. The polls, of course, support his intuition. And Rajoy, once again, is attempting to conceal it: "I think we are going to win the elections."

Rajoy is so constant in this strategy of putting off policies that on Saturday he achieved something that seemed impossible: turning the most excessive rally imaginable at the Valencia bullring, packed to the rafters with vocal supporters, into an anodyne affair. As an example, the phrase with which he closed his discourse is sufficient. "The only thing Spaniards need is a halfway decent government." He even added the "halfway." Expectations could not be set lower.

The Socialists (PSOE) are trying everything to mobilize undecided voters. But is does not appear to be working. During election campaigns the PP has always feared a last-minute mobilization against the right. On this occasion, the panorama seems different. "Spaniards now no longer fear change," Rajoy concluded. That "now" was a confession of something that has become customary in one campaign after another since 1990:g how the PSOE gains ground in the final straight.

What is certain is that this time the PP is winning the campaign as well. Nothing seems able to make a dent in the anti-campaign designed by Rajoy and his team. The PSOE has mixed proposals that under normal circumstances would be daring - such as asking Brussels to grant a two-year moratorium on deficit reduction targets, or imposing fresh taxes on the banks - with all sorts of heated dialectics, even going so far as to try to engineer a face-off between old leaders Felipe González and José María Aznar.

The former Socialist PM criticized his perennial rival for saying that Spain is bankrupt - the former PP leader on Sunday called the country "ruined" - and called on "angry" and undecided voters to "stop the avalanche of cuts," that, González said, the PP will impose. But nothing could break the PP campaign, and Aznar did not rise to the bait. Proposals that formerly generated debate, such as the wealth tax, now appear laid to rest. And the days pass.

Perhaps because of this Rubalcaba has fomented a new tactic: to triple the number of his meetings every day. As in the Transition period, when politics was amateur and votes were genuinely sought from town to town, house to house. Rubalcaba intends to go around various towns to hold ad hoc assemblies as well as the traditional big rallies. The PSOE's big problem, or the big advantage the PP has, is that the situation does not seem to be liquid. The polls have not detected any shift and neither has the analysis of the partiers themselves. In voter intention the PP seems to inspire loyalty and the PSOE resignation.

All campaigns have an epicenter, a polemic proposal, a much-talked-about declaration, a scandal, a case of foot-in-mouth, an incident... or a decisive debate. In this campaign, nothing. The explanation for this needs to be sought in the huge advantage the PP holds over the sinking PSOE due to the crisis. But also in the style of Rajoy. Only he is capable of pretending every day that nothing is happening, and of transforming the most delicate moments into ordinary business.

Almost all politicians consider that the past does not exist if it is not convenient to them. But it is difficult to imagine someone other than Rajoy starring in a scene like that of Valencia. On the same stage that he said that he would always keep Francisco Camps, who resigned over the Gürtel corruption scandal, "behind, in front and by my side," and with almost the same facial expression, did not even mention his name. It was as though Camps had disappeared from what had always been his bullring. He didn't even attend, even though he is still a deputy. The placards that in May filled the arena with "We are with you, Paco," were transformed to "[current Valencia premier] Alberto Fabra, Vinarós is with you" - as if Camps had never existed. And only someone like the PP leader could refer to Gürtel with the following phrase. "Thank you, [PP justice chief] Federico [Trillo] for taking up some matters that we are not going to refer to."